Long-term effects of reduced nutrient inputs to the North Sea

The OSPAR Commission has identified a set of Ecological Quality Objectives (EcoQOs) to assess eutrophication in the North Sea. In order to assess the long-term effects of different river nutrient reduction scenarios in terms of these EcoQOs, a 3-dimensional coupled physical–chemical–biological model, NORWECOM, has been used. The model results show that there is a decreasing response gradient from near-shore to offshore, where the largest effects are identified along the Dutch coast, and that the full potential of a reduction is seen after 2–3 years. The EcoQOs on winter nutrients and chlorophyll are achieved for most areas. Oxygen concentrations displace no or very low response to the modelled nutrient reductions. The study also shows that the ecological quality is controlled to a large extent by winds and ocean circulation.