A cellular automata model for population expansion of Spartina alterniflora at Jiuduansha Shoals, Shanghai, China

Biological invasion has received considerable attention recently because of increasing impacts on local ecosystems. Expansion of Spartina alterniflora, a non-native species, on the intertidal mudflats of Jiuduansha Shoals at the Yangtze River Estuary is a prime example of a spatially-structured invasion in a relatively simple habitat, for which strategic control efforts can be modeled and applied. Here, we developed a Cellular Automata (CA) model, in conjunction with Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems, to simulate the expanding process of S. alterniflora for a period of 8 years after being introduced to the new shoals, and to study the interactions between spatial pattern and ecosystem processes for the saltmarsh vegetation. The results showed that the CA model could simulate the population dynamics of S. alterniflora and Phragmites australis on the Jiuduansha Shoals successfully. The results strongly support the hypothesis of space pre-emption as well as range expansion with simple advancing wave fronts for these two species. In the Yangtze River Estuary, the native species P. australis shares the same niche with the exotic species S. alterniflora. However, the range expansion rate of P. australis was much slower than that of S. alterniflora. With the accretion of the Jiuduansha Shoals due to the large quantity of sediments deposited by the Yangtze River, a rapid range expansion of S. alterniflora is predicted to last for a long period into future. This study indicated the potential for this approach to provide valuable insights into population and community ecology of invasive species, which could be very important for wetland biodiversity conservation and resource management in the Yangtze River Estuary and other such impacted areas.