A new method to estimate location and slip of simulated rock failure events

• Numerical analog for acoustic emission using deviatoric strain.
• Model is based on poro-elastic-plastic continuum mechancis.
• We compare the model results with drained and undrained laboratory experiments.
• We find excellent agreement between model and observations for all cases.
• Our numerical analog mimcs behavior of acoustic emissions very well.

At the laboratory scale, identifying and locating acoustic emissions (AEs) is a common method for short term prediction of failure in geomaterials. Above average AE typically precedes the failure process and is easily measured. At larger scales, increase in micro-seismic activity sometimes precedes large earthquakes (e.g. Tohoku, L'Aquilla, oceanic transforms), and can be used to assess seismic risk.The goal of this work is to develop a methodology and numerical algorithms for extracting a measurable quantity analogous to AE arising from the solution of equations governing rock deformation. Since there is no physical property to quantify AE derivable from the governing equations, an appropriate rock-mechanical analog needs to be found.In this work, we identify a general behavior of the AE generation process preceding rock failure. This behavior includes arbitrary localization of low magnitude events during pre-failure stage, followed by increase in number and amplitude, and finally localization around the incipient failure plane during macroscopic failure. We propose deviatoric strain rate as the numerical analog that mimics this behavior, and develop two different algorithms designed to detect rapid increases in deviatoric strain using moving averages.The numerical model solves a fully poro-elasto-plastic continuum model and is coupled to a two-phase flow model. We test our model by comparing simulation results with experimental data of drained compression and of fluid injection experiments. We find for both cases that occurrence and amplitude of our AE analog mimic the observed general behavior of the AE generation process.Our technique can be extended to modeling at the field scale, possibly providing a mechanistic basis for seismic hazard assessment from seismicity that occasionally precedes large earthquakes.