An improved version of the Load/Unload Response Ratio method for forecasting strong aftershocks

► We introduce a new LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) formula by combining the ETAS model with LURR method. ► The new formula is applied in the Wenchuan aftershock sequence in 2008 in China. ► The LURR peaks exhibit as alarms before strong aftershocks of Wenchuan earthquake. ► We find the new LURR performs better than the original one from Molchan error diagrams.