کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
4713727 1638379 2012 8 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Probabilistic estimation of long-term volcanic hazard with assimilation of geophysics and tectonic data
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات ژئوشیمی و پترولوژی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Probabilistic estimation of long-term volcanic hazard with assimilation of geophysics and tectonic data
چکیده انگلیسی

Risk assessments in relation to the siting of potential geological repositories require the estimation of long-term volcanic hazard. Owing to their tectonic situation, many industrial regions around the world are concerned by such evaluation. For sites near volcanically active regions, the prevailing source of uncertainty is long-term volcanic hazard. The complexity and non-linearity of volcanic processes, the space–time variability in terms of distribution and intensity for volcanic events and the limited amount of information make probabilistic estimation of volcanic hazard ineluctable. The needs for reliable methodologies for volcanic and tectonic hazard assessments in Japan have stimulated the development of specific stochastic models for improving uncertainty characterization. A conditional Cox process with a multivariate potential was developed for the assimilation of geophysics and tectonic data (gravity data, GPS strain rate data and active faults). The theoretical basis and concepts of the proposed model are given and a methodological illustration is provided using data from the island of Kyushu.


► Estimation of long-term volcanic hazard for potential geological repositories.
► Development of conditional Cox model for assimilation of geophysics and tectonic data.
► Methodological application using data from the island of Kyushu, Japan.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research - Volumes 235–236, 1 August 2012, Pages 29–36
نویسندگان
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