کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
4714224 1353950 2009 15 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Modeling unusual eruptive behavior of Mt. Etna, Italy, by means of event bush
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات ژئوشیمی و پترولوژی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Modeling unusual eruptive behavior of Mt. Etna, Italy, by means of event bush
چکیده انگلیسی

One of the best-studied volcanoes of the world, Mt. Etna in Sicily, repeatedly exhibits eruptive scenarios that depart from the behavior commonly considered typical for this volcano. Episodes of intense explosive activity, pyroclastic flows, dome growth and cone collapse pose a variety of previously underestimated threats to human lives in the summit area of the volcano. However, retrospective analysis of these events shows that they were likely caused by the same very sets of premises and starting conditions as “normal” eruptions, yet combined in an unexpected, probably unique, way. To cope with such unexpected consequences, we involve an approach of artificial intelligence developed specially for needs of the geosciences, the event bush. Scenarios inferred from the event bush fit the observed ones and allow to foresee other low-probability events that may occur at the volcano. Application of the event bush provides a more impartial vision of volcanic phenomena and may serve as an intermediary between expert knowledge and numerical assessment, e.g., by means of Bayesian Belief Networks.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research - Volume 185, Issue 3, 20 August 2009, Pages 157–171
نویسندگان
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