کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
4714639 1638355 2013 15 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Economic impact of explosive volcanic eruptions: A simulation-based assessment model applied to Campania region volcanoes
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تأثیر اقتصادی فوران های آتشفشانی انفجاری: یک مدل ارزیابی مبتنی بر شبیه سازی برای آتشفشان های منطقه کامپانیا
کلمات کلیدی
خطر آتشفشان ارزیابی اقتصادی، مدیریت بحران، مدیریت برنامه ریزی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات ژئوشیمی و پترولوژی
چکیده انگلیسی


• A simulation based assessment model is proposed for evaluating the economic impact of volcanic eruptions.
• The model allows estimation of the effects of different impact/damage scenarios.
• The prototypal version of the model has been developed with reference to Campania region volcanoes (Italy).
• Territorial data, cost units of prevalent building types, etc., are referred to Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei areas.
• The model allows assessing direct/indirect economic impacts according to different factors: time, space and point of view.

PLINIVS Study Centre of University of Naples Federico II has developed a methodology that aims to estimate, in probabilistic terms, the direct and the indirect economic impacts of a Sub-Plinian I or Strombolian type eruption of Vesuvius. The economic model has been implemented as a complementary tool of the Volcanic Impact Simulation Model, a tool developed at PLINIVS Center available to the Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC) decision makers to quantify the potential losses consequent to a possible eruption of Vesuvius or Campi Flegrei. Along the expected time history of the eruptive event all the possible “direct costs” and the “factors” (indirect costs) impacting the economic growth in the event area have been identified. Each cost factor is built up through a specific algorithm that is fed by various providers, in order to run software that will estimate the global amount of economic damage from a volcanic event. The model does not include the economic evaluation of intangibles (e.g. human casualties), while the evaluation of damage to the local cultural heritage (historical buildings, archeological sites, monuments, etc.), is linked to the economic impact on tourism, estimated into indirect costs. The architecture of the model is based on a simulation logic, which allows an evaluation of different economic impact scenarios through input changes, allowing the model to be used as a tool to support the decision making process.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research - Volume 266, 1 October 2013, Pages 1–15
نویسندگان
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