A perspective on model-data surface temperature comparison at the Last Glacial Maximum

• We discuss developments in modelling and proxy-based estimation of the surface temperature field of the Last Glacial Maximum.
• Recent data analyses suggest global mean temperature anomaly of around 4.0 °C below pre-industrial.
• Model simulations agree reasonably well on broad scales, but poorly on a regional basis.

We review progress in model and proxy-based reconstruction of the surface temperature field of the Last Glacial Maximum. Both approaches have converged towards a climate state substantially colder than the present day, with the temperature anomaly field showing strong polar amplification and land-sea contrast. The magnitudes of the large-scale changes are increasingly well-constrained, with a recent model-data synthesis generating a value of 4 °C, which suggests a moderate equilibrium climate sensitivity of about 2.5 °C. However, significant areas of uncertainty remain, particularly in the tropical sea surface temperature change. At finer sub-continental spatial scales, there is limited agreement between models and data regarding the patterns of change.