Resiliency of the western Chesapeake Bay to total suspended solid concentrations following storms and accounting for land-cover

The effect of storms on water quality in the Chesapeake Bay has been studied in a patchwork fashion at various sites for short periods of time. In this paper, we use a relationship between MODIS-Terra red light reflectance and total suspended solid (TSS) concentrations in order to develop a fourteen-year time period of TSS estimates during which effects of storms and land cover can be studied over a large portion of the Bay. Exponential fits were most appropriate, resulting in viable reflectance-TSS relationships for the five major Western Shore rivers and the Mainstem of the Bay. Other tributaries were less well-disposed for such relationships due to lack of a large range of TSS concentrations, shallow river beds, or low number of data points. Treating the entire Chesapeake as a single entity and modeling a single reflectance-TSS relationship for the entire estuary produced poorer models with less significance compared to treating each channel separately. Over 2800 rain events were studied in the Lower Western Shore between 2000 and 2014. We found some evidence that higher rainfall amounts correspond to a lower distribution of TSS concentrations 1 day following the event in forested watersheds. At rainfall events of <50 mm, maximum TSS within one day of the storm was highly variable, suggesting that rainfall amounts alone cannot explain variation in TSS levels. Finally, we found value in the use of prediction intervals around TSS estimates, a statistical procedure uncommonly used heretofore with satellite-based estimates but which can help to determine if results are significant or not.

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