Performance of the 'material Failure Forecast Method' in real-time situations: A Bayesian approach applied on effusive and explosive eruptions

Our automated procedure has allowed the analysis of long, continuous seismic time series: 13 years from Volcán de Colima, Mexico, 10 years from Piton de la Fournaise, Reunion Island, France, and several months from Merapi volcano, Java, Indonesia. The new forecasting approach has been applied to 64 pre-eruptive sequences which present various types of dominant seismic activity (volcano-tectonic or long-period events) and patterns of seismicity with different level of complexity. This has allowed us to test the FFM assumptions, to determine in which conditions the method can be applied, and to quantify the success rate of the forecasts. 62% of the precursory sequences analysed are suitable for the application of FFM and half of the total number of eruptions are successfully forecast in hindsight. In real-time, the method allows for the successful forecast of 36% of all the eruptions considered. Nevertheless, real-time forecasts are successful for 83% of the cases that fulfil the reliability criteria. Therefore, good confidence on the method is obtained when the reliability criteria are met.