Testing different ecological scenarios in a temperate estuary: A contribution towards the implementation of the Ecological Potential assessment

- Ecological Potential concept was explored in a temperate estuary.
- Scenarios were tested to predict changes in biology related to physical pressures.
- Noticeable changes in the system biology were observed in each scenario.
- Differences in ecological quality as a way forward to determine the potential.

The concept of Ecological Potential was explored using the macrobenthic communities of the Mondego estuary (Portugal). Different scenarios (loss of a primary producer and intertidal habitat, and habitat modification due to hydromorphological changes and continued press perturbation) were tested to predict changes in the biology if hydromorphological pressures could be reversed, assuming that differences with and without the pressure could indicate the potential.Results showed noticeable changes in the system biology in each scenario. The approach followed, indicates that when data sets exist, differences in the measurement of ecological status with and without the hydromorphological change could be a way forward to determine the potential. In the particular case of the Mondego estuary, the South arm (physically unaltered water body) proved to be richer than the North (HMWB). For the Ecological Potential determination, the South arm could thus be used to derive and adjust future reference conditions for the North.