Using tolerance intervals to assess recovery of mussel beds impacted by the Exxon Valdez oil spill

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) have been measured in mussel tissues in early spring and summer since 1993 throughout Prince William Sound (PWS) and the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). Season-specific thresholds were established at reference sites to identify 'above background' total PAH levels. Thresholds were estimated using one-sided 99% tolerance limits. Thresholds were similar across reference sites but differed by an order of magnitude across seasons. Trends in total PAH since 1998 were assessed for sites impacted by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill or the Alyeska Marine Terminal. Summer samples exhibited no trends; early spring samples declined. In early spring, all sites were judged 'recovered' by 2004; in summer, one site in western Prince William Sound and two in the western GOA exceeded thresholds by 11 ng/g dry weight or less. Robust estimation methods prevented bias from observations affected by unknown releases or laboratory errors.