Spatio-temporal variability of droughts and terrestrial water storage over Lake Chad Basin using independent component analysis

- A framework for spatio-temporal drought monitoring in LCB using ICA.
- AMO, AMM, and ENSO are associated with observed wet/dry periods in LCB.
- Recent increase in rainfall coincides with increase in altimetry water levels.
- Extreme positive SPI values are inconsistent with SSI and MSDI values.
- There are no statistically significant trends in TWS changes within the basin.

SummaryLake Chad has recently been perceived to be completely desiccated and almost extinct due to insufficient published ground observations. Given the high spatial variability of rainfall in the region, and the fact that extreme climatic conditions (for example, droughts) could be intensifying in the Lake Chad basin (LCB) due to human activities, a spatio-temporal approach to drought analysis becomes essential. This study employed independent component analysis (ICA), a fourth-order cumulant statistics, to decompose standardised precipitation index (SPI), standardised soil moisture index (SSI), and terrestrial water storage (TWS) derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) into spatial and temporal patterns over the LCB. In addition, this study uses satellite altimetry data to estimate variations in the Lake Chad water levels, and further employs relevant climate teleconnection indices (El-Niño Southern Oscillation-ENSO, Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation-AMO, and Atlantic Meridional Mode-AMM) to examine their links to the observed drought temporal patterns over the basin. From the spatio-temporal drought analysis, temporal evolutions of SPI at 12 month aggregation show relatively wet conditions in the last two decades (although with marked alterations) with the 2012-2014 period being the wettest. In addition to the improved rainfall conditions during this period, there was a statistically significant increase of 0.04 m/yr in altimetry water levels observed over Lake Chad between 2008 and 2014, which confirms a shift in the hydrological conditions of the basin. Observed trend in TWS changes during the 2002-2014 period shows a statistically insignificant increase of 3.0 mm/yr at the centre of the basin, coinciding with soil moisture deficit indicated by the temporal evolutions of SSI at all monthly accumulations during the 2002-2003 and 2009-2012 periods. Further, SPI at 3 and 6 month scales indicated fluctuating drought conditions at the extreme south of the basin, coinciding with a statistically insignificant decline in TWS of about 4.5 mm/yr at the southern catchment of the basin. Finally, correlation analyses indicate that ENSO, AMO, and AMM are associated with extreme rainfall conditions in the basin, with AMO showing the strongest association (statistically significant correlation of 0.55) with SPI 12 month aggregation. Therefore, this study provides a framework that will support drought monitoring in the LCB.