Closed loop terminal guidance navigation for a kinetic impactor spacecraft

A kinetic impactor spacecraft is a viable method to deflect an asteroid which poses a threat to the Earth. The technology to perform such a deflection has been demonstrated by the Deep Impact (DI) mission, which successfully collided with comet Tempel 1 in July 2005 using an onboard autonomous navigation system, called AutoNav, for the terminal phase of the mission. In this paper, we evaluate the ability of AutoNav to impact a wider range of scenarios that a deflection mission could encounter, varying parameters such as the approach velocity, phase angle, size of the asteroid, and the attitude determination accuracy. In particular, we evaluated the capability of AutoNav to impact 100-300 m size asteroids at speeds between 7.5 and 20 km/s at various phase angles. Using realistic Monte Carlo simulations, we tabulated the probability of success of the deflection as a function of these parameters and find the highest sensitivity to be due to the spacecraft attitude determination error. In addition, we also specifically analyzed the impact probability for a proposed mission (called ISIS) which would send an impactor to the asteroid 1999RQ36. We conclude with some recommendations for future work.