Evaluation of two risk assessment methods for sowing maize in Kenya

Dry and wet sowing methods of rainfed maize in Trans Nzoia and Uasin Gishu districts, a major grain belt in Kenya, were evaluated. The evaluation is based on a daily analysis of soil water balance over the initial growth stage (30 days) by identifying and quantifying the risk of failure of crop development. Historical daily climatic data of a 30-year period and soil data from seven stations, spatially distributed in the study area, were considered. Results indicate that germination for dry sowing are by up to 9 days earlier for an early and normal onset of the rainy season in comparison with sowing after the onset of the rains (wet sowing). The difference increases to about 15 days for a late onset of the rainy season in most stations. The risk level representing a false start of the growing season increased from 1.5% for wet sowing to 9.9% for dry sowing.