کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
8867326 1621544 2018 13 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle over France and associated uncertainties
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تاثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر چرخه هیدرولوژیکی بر فرانسه و عدم اطمینان آن
کلمات کلیدی
تغییر آب و هوا، تأثیرات فرانسه، هیدرولوژی منطقه ای، تغییرات چرخه هیدرولوژیکی،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات علوم زمین و سیاره ای (عمومی)
چکیده انگلیسی
This study deals with the evolution of the hydrological cycle over France during the 21st century. A large multi-member, multi-scenario, and multi-model ensemble of climate projections is downscaled with a new statistical method to drive a physically-based hydrological model with recent improvements. For a business-as-usual scenario, annual precipitation changes generally remain small, except over southern France, where decreases close to 20% are projected. Annual streamflows roughly decrease by 10% (±20%) on the Seine, by 20% (±20%) on the Loire, by 20% (±15%) on the Rhone and by 40% (±15%) on the Garonne. Attenuation measures, as implied by the other scenarios analyzed, lead to less severe changes. However, even with a scenario generally compatible with a limitation of global warming to two degrees, some notable impacts may still occur, with for example a decrease in summer river flows close to 25% for the Garonne.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Comptes Rendus Geoscience - Volume 350, Issue 4, May–June 2018, Pages 141-153
نویسندگان
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