Remote-sensing data-based Archaeological Predictive Model (APM) for archaeological site mapping in desert area, South Morocco

Morocco hosts numerous archaeological sites, some of which are part of the UNESCO world heritage. Many of these sites, especially funerary mounds also called tumuli, or rock engravings and ceramics, are located in remote areas with limited access, particularly in the Saharan Morocco desert. We developed a remote sensing and GIS model to identify areas with high potential for hosting archaeological sites in the Awserd region of southern Morocco. A field campaign in a “reference site” zone of 21 km2 has revealed 233 archaeological sites. Here we use satellite images and Digital Elevation Models to examine with various techniques (spatial analysis, statistical techniques, and fuzzy logic functions) the relations between the distribution of the archaeological sites and geo-environmental variables such as ground geology, topographic elevation and slope, orientation (aspect), and distance to water sources. We derive empirical relations that reveal that the distribution of archaeological sites depends on the above geo-environmental variables. We then use the empirical relations to anticipate the potential locations of archaeological sites in a region of 980 km2 enclosing the reference site area. The model proves capable of predicting 582 sites in the larger region. Subsequent field observations there confirmed that about 80% of the model anticipations were correct. Our Archaeological Predictive Model (APM) can be scaled to larger areas and varied geographic settings, and hence can be a useful guide for archeological studies in desert regions.