Criminal thinking and recidivism: Meta-analytic evidence on the predictive and incremental validity of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS)

Two meta-analyses were performed on the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS: Walters, 1995) as a predictor of recidivism. Seven samples from six different studies (5 published, 1 unpublished) were included in the first meta-analysis. The results revealed a pooled mean effect size (r) of .20 for the reconstructed General Criminal Thinking score (GCTrc), a pooled mean effect size of .17 for the reconstructed Proactive Criminal Thinking score (Prc), and a pooled mean effect size of .17 for the reconstructed Reactive Criminal Thinking score (Rrc). Data from three of these studies (4 samples) were sufficient to perform a meta-analysis of the incremental validity of the GCTrc. In all four samples, the GCTrc score predicted recidivism above and beyond the contributions of age and criminal history, with a mean effect size (odds ratio) of 1.27. Whereas the PICTS GCTrc score satisfied two of the three criteria for dynamic risk (i.e., dynamic risk factors are statistically and clinically significant predictors of outcome and are incrementally valid relative to well-established static risk factors), there is a need for additional data to assess its standing on the third criterion (i.e., changes in dynamic risk factors predict outcome and changes in outcome risk).

► Evaluated PICTS General Criminal Thinking (GCT) score as a predictor of recidivism.
► Pooled mean effect size (r) of .20 for GCT in seven samples.
► GCT incrementally valid predictor of recidivism in four samples.
► GCT satisfied two of the three criteria for dynamic risk.
► Additional research required to assess if change in GCT predicts change in outcome.