Three-dimensional liquefaction potential analysis using geostatistical interpolation

We applied three-dimensional geostatistical interpolation to evaluate the extent of liquefiable materials at two sites that liquefied during the 1994 Northridge Earthquake. The sites were the Balboa Blvd site and the Wynne Ave. site located in the alluvial San Fernando Valley. The estimated peak ground accelerations at the sites are 0.84 g (Balboa Blvd) and 0.51 g (Wynne Ave.). These sites were chosen because surface effects due to liquefaction were not predicted using available techniques based on thickness and depth of liquefiable layers (Ishihara [Ishihara K. Stability of natural deposits during earthquakes. Proceedings of the 11th international conference on soil mechanics and foundation engineering, vol. 1. Rotterdam, The Netherlands: A.A. Balkema; 1985. p. 321-76.]) and the Liquefaction Potential Index (Iwasaki et al. [Iwasaki T, Tatsuoka F, Tokida K, Yasuda S. A practical method for assessing soil liquefaction potential based on case studies at various sites in Japan. In: Proceedings of the second international conference on microzonation, San Francisco; 1978. p. 885-96.]). During the earthquake, both sites experienced surface effects including ground cracking and extension as a result of liquefaction. Foundations and buried utilities were damaged at both sites. The sites were investigated after the event by researchers with the United States Geologic Survey using standard penetration tests (SPT) and cone penetration tests. In this paper, liquefaction potential was estimated for each soil sample using results from SPTs according to the updated Seed and Idriss simplified procedure. The probability of liquefaction was estimated by applying an indicator transform to the results of the liquefaction potential calculation. We compared our results to detailed geologic mapping of the sites performed by other researchers. Using geostatistical interpolation to estimate the probability of liquefaction is a useful supplement to geologic evaluation of liquefaction potential. The geostatistical analysis provides an estimate of the continuous volume of liquefiable soil along with an assessment of confidence in an interpolation. The probability of liquefaction volumes compare well with those predicted using geologic interpretations.