Effects of NEO composition on deflection methodologies

During the early stages of NEO mitigation campaign planning, it is indispensable to characterise the hazardous object. However, exhaustive characterisation in close proximity to the object may not always be feasible when the lead time is in the order of a few years to a decade, hence causing uncertainty in its physical and compositional properties. This study aims to evaluate the reliability and robustness of different deflection methodologies subject to uncertainty in the asteroid composition. The Evidence Theory is used to quantify epistemic uncertainty in the asteroid properties. The kinetic impact, nuclear intercept, and the solar sublimation [mitigation approaches] are applied to a set of virtual Earth-threatening asteroids with different Keplerian elements, sizes (30–150 m), and mission lead times (5–18 years) with the goal of a minimum 2½ Earth-radii deviation distance. A typical S-type rubble pile configuration is used as the baseline asteroid composition for the study.

► Epistemic uncertainty in asteroid compositions is quantified by the Evidence Theory.
► Asteroid mitigation is subject to uncertainty in target asteroid characterisation.
► The kinetic interceptor results in a smaller uncertainty range in deviation.