Critical forces defining alternative futures for the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence River basin

• Stakeholders identified forces of highest impact and uncertainty within the basin.
• Societal values and ability to change are uncertain and important for the basin.
• Environment/economic balance plays an uncertain and important role in the basin.
• These forces shape four plausible, alternative futures for the basin.

Envisioning possible futures is challenging due to the interactive and interdependent nature of myriad anthropogenic pressures on the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence River basin. To overcome this challenge, we used the intuitive logistics method of scenario analysis and identified two independent forces of high impact and high uncertainty by engaging a broad spectrum of basin stakeholders from academia, government, non-governmental organizations, and industry organizations. A workshop was held to debate and identify the two key forces among many drivers of change for the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence River basin. From the workshop activities, two key forces emerged. The first axis, “Human Capacity for Change,” was characterized on its positive end by an adaptive system where shared values, collectivism, inclusivity, and a respect for obligations by all segments of society are a reality, and on its negative end by an individualistic, overly hierarchical, short sighted, reactionary, oppressive, and gridlocked governance system. The second axis, “Environment and Economic Balance,” was characterized on its positive end by a thriving synergy between economy and environment, and on its negative end by an environment, economy, or both that were in poor shape. The intersection of these axes framed four alternative 50-year projections, characterized by combinations of their positive and/or negative axis end points. These four alternate futures portrayed a basin that was: living on the edge (−/+); thriving and prosperous (+/+); trying hard to adapt (+/−); and out of control (−/−), and reveal policy and strategic research needs and policy recommendations to reach a thriving future.