Stress evolution and fault interactions before and after the 2008 Great Wenchuan earthquake

The 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) ruptured ∼ 300 km of the Longmen Shan fault, claiming ∼ 90,000 lives and devastating many cities in the Sichuan province, China. The coseismic stress changes due to the Wenchuan earthquake have been studied in kinematic models using the inferred coseismic fault slips, but the cause of the fault slips, the impact of other large earthquakes, and the mechanical interactions between the faults in eastern Tibet are uncertain. Here we explore these issues using a three-dimensional viscoelastoplastic dynamic model that calculates the regional stresses from tectonic and topographic loading, and simulates earthquakes and their stress perturbations. Our calculated coseismic changes of the Coulomb stress associated with the Great Wenchuan earthquake are similar to those in previous models. However, we show that the cumulative Coulomb stress changes, hence the implied earthquake risks, are significantly different when previous large earthquakes in the region are included in the model. Particularly, we show that in spite of stress increase from the Wenchuan earthquake, the southeastern segments of the Xianshuihe fault stay in a stress shadow because of the stress release by six M ≥ 6.9 events in this part of the Xianshuihe fault since 1893. We also found that interseismic locking on the Xianshuihe fault can increase the loading rate on the Longmen Shan fault by up to ∼ 50 Pa/year.