Modeling and assessing hydrologic processes for historical and potential land-cover change in the Duoyingping watershed, southwest China

Land-cover change significantly influences hydrologic processes at the watershed level. The mountainous Duoyingping watershed in upstream Yangtze River, China, has undergone dramatic land-cover change in the past three decades. It is likely to maintain this trend in the future, inevitably altering hydrologic processes in the region to a certain degree. Therefore, the effects of land-cover change on runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture in the watershed were assessed using a large-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model.To minimize the effect of climate change on simulation results, we used detrended climate data over the period 1980–2005 in forcing the VIC model. The dynamics in the spatial distribution of land-cover types in the Duoyingping watershed from 1980 to 2000 were first examined, revealing that reforestation and deforestation were the major change patterns. On the basis of various land-use policies, potential land-cover scenarios for 2030 were established using an integrated land-use change model (CLUE-S). The scenarios were developed using 2000 land-use data as bases. Finally, the calibrated VIC model was applied in the scenarios to assess land-cover effects on hydrology. Hydrologic simulations showed that the effects of historical land-cover change on hydrology were discernible in the sub-watersheds of Nanba, Yingjing, and Yuxi. The annual ET was projected to decrease by 0.8–22.3% because of deforestation, and increase by 2.3–27.4% because of shrubland–forest conversion. Different potential land-cover scenarios play various roles in the effect on hydrology because of various land-use policies. In the scenario concerning forest protection policy, annual ET increased by more than 15%, while annual runoff decreased by 6%. However, a negligible effect on hydrology was found under the scenario involving cropland expansion. On the basis of the results, it is concluded that ET is more sensitive to land-cover change than are other hydrologic components. Hydrologic alteration caused by reforestation and deforestation during the dry season was more significant than that during wet season. Generally, the proposed approach in the study can be a useful means of assessing hydrologic responses to land-cover change.

► We simulate the effects of historical and potential land-cover change on hydrology.
► Reforestation and deforestation are the major land-cover change patterns.
► Increasing forest will increase ET and decrease runoff and soil moisture.
► ET is most sensitive to land-cover change.
► Hydrologic changes in the dry season are more obvious than those in the wet season.