Probabilistic slope stability analysis considering the variability of hydraulic conductivity under rainfall infiltration–redistribution conditions

• A probabilistic frame of rainfall-induced landslide is proposed.
• Infiltration–redistribution process is analyzed by an extension of Green-Ampt model.
• A closed form of limit state function is established.
• The most likely failure time of rainfall-induced landslide can be calculated.
• Figuring out why some rainfall-induced landslides occur after a rainfall event

Many soil parameters are highly variable, especially saturated hydraulic conductivity, which is bound to significantly influence the stability of unsaturated soil slopes that are subjected to rainfall infiltration and redistribution. A random variable model is used to characterize the variability of saturated hydraulic conductivity. Random number sequences of saturated hydraulic conductivity are generated following a lognormal distribution using the Monte Carlo Simulation method. Then the closed form of the limit state function is established, based on the combination of the extension of the Green-Ampt model and the infinite slope stability model. The suggested probabilistic method can calculate the time-dependent failure probability of the slope during a process of rainfall infiltration and redistribution. For a hypothetical slope that is subjected to steady-state rainfall infiltration, a series of parameter analyses are conducted and the results indicate that there exists a critical rainfall duration. At different stages of rainwater infiltration–redistribution, the trends between the failure probability of the soil slope and the coefficient of variation of the saturated hydraulic conductivity have a different form. The coefficient of variation of the saturated hydraulic conductivity does not affect the failure time of the slope that is most likely to occur. This paper figures out why some landslides occur after a rainfall event from the perspective of rainwater redistribution, and the corresponding lag times generally depend on the duration of antecedent rainfall. It is very risky to adopt mean safety factors to assess their stabilities for rainfall-induced landslides when the variability of the hydraulic conductivity is considered.