Earthquake probability in Taipei based on non-local model with limited local observation: Maximum likelihood estimation

- A novel MLE algorithm for empirical model adjustments for local use.
- Assessment on major earthquake probability in Taipei.
- 0.37% Probability for the Sanchiao fault in Taipei to induce a catastrophic event.

Many earthquake empirical models were developed based on the statistics in the past. However, it is commonly seen that a non-local model was applied to a local study without any adjustment. In this paper, a new algorithm using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to adjust a non-local model for local applications was presented, including a case study assessing the probability of major earthquake occurrences in Taipei. Specifically, considering the fault length of 36 km and slip rate of 2 mm/yr, it suggests the Sanchiao (or Shanchiao) fault could induce a major earthquake with magnitude Mw 7.14±0.17, based on a non-local model integrated with limited local data using the MLE algorithms.