Reconstruction of historical changes in northern fur seal prey availability and diversity in the western North Pacific through individual-based analysis of dietary records

We analyzed long-term dietary records of northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) to reconstruct historical changes in prey availability and diversity in the western North Pacific off northeastern Japan. The nominal relationships between the occurrence frequencies of fishes or squids in fur seal stomachs and the sampling locations reflected the spatial heterogeneity of fish and squid distributions along the shelf-slope-offshore continuum off northeastern Japan, whereas changes in the temporal occurrence frequencies reflected mainly the migration and foraging patterns of the fur seals. The occurrence probabilities of fishes and squids in fur seal stomachs were standardized by using generalized linear models to compensate for sampling biases in space and time. The reconstructed historical trends revealed decadal shifts in relatively high prey abundance-from mackerels in the 1970s to Japanese sardine in the 1980s and myctophids/sparkling enope squids in the 1990s-that were related to decadal shifts in the oceanographic regime. The sequential increase in mackerel and Japanese sardine abundances coincided with the annual catch trends of commercial fisheries. The index of overall prey availability calculated from the standardized occurrence probabilities of fishes and squids in fur seal stomachs was fairly stable over the decades.