Assessing climate change impacts on the stability of small tidal inlets: Part 1 - Data poor environments

Results show that Type 1 and Type 3 inlets will not change Type even under the most extreme CC driven variations in system forcing considered here. Type 2 inlets may change into Type 1 when CC results in a reduction in annual longshore sediment transport. Apart from Type changes, CC will affect the level of inlet stability and some key behavioural characteristics (e.g. inlet migration distances, inlet closure times). In general, CC driven variations in annual longshore sediment transport rates appear to be more relevant for future changes in inlet stability and behaviour, rather than sea level rise as commonly believed. Based on model results, an inlet classification scheme which, for the first time, links inlet Type with the Bruun inlet stability criteria is presented.