Re-eutrophication of Lake Erie: Correlations between tributary nutrient loads and phytoplankton biomass

Both abiotic and biotic explanations have been proposed to explain recent recurrent nuisance/harmful algal blooms in the western basin and central basin of Lake Erie. We used two long-term (> 10 years) datasets to test (1) whether Lake Erie total phytoplankton biomass and cyanobacterial biomass changed over time and (2) whether phytoplankton abundance was influenced by soluble reactive phosphorus or nitrate loading from agriculturally-dominated tributaries (Maumee and Sandusky rivers). We found that whereas total phytoplankton biomass decreased in Lake Erie's western basin from 1970 to 1987, it increased starting in the mid-1990s. Total phytoplankton and cyanobacterial seasonal (May-October) arithmetic mean wet-weight biomasses each significantly increased with increased water-year total soluble reactive phosphorus load from the Maumee River and the sum of soluble reactive phosphorus load from the Maumee and Sandusky rivers, but not for the Sandusky River alone during 1996-2006. During this same time period, neither total phytoplankton nor cyanobacterial biomass was correlated with nitrate load. Consequently, recently increased tributary soluble reactive phosphorus loads from the Maumee River likely contributed greatly to increased western basin and (central basin) cyanobacterial biomass and more frequent occurrence of harmful algal blooms. Managers thus must incorporate the form of and source location from which nutrients are delivered to lakes into their management plans, rather than solely considering total (both in terms of form and amount) nutrient load to the whole lake. Further, future studies need to address the relative contributions of not only external loads, but also sources of internal loading.