Forecasts of seasonal to inter-annual beach change using a reduced physics beach profile model

The observed seasonal to inter-annual variability of beach profiles has been investigated using a one dimensional beach profile model. The model used here is developed on the 'reduced-physics' modelling approach. The model uses a diffusion formulation as the governing equation and adopts an inverse modelling technique for solving the equation. The model is calibrated and validated against historic measurements of beach profiles at Hasaki Coast, located in the east coast of Japan. The beach is longshore uniform and characterised by a highly dynamic longshore bar-trough system. The model is then used to forecast seasonal to inter-annual scale beach change. The results are compared with beach change determined from measured beach profiles at Hasaki between 2007 and 2011. The simple modelling approach used yields encouraging results of seasonal to inter-annual scale beach change at Hasaki Coast.