Beware of Greeks bearing gifts: The potential impact of yogurt innovation on dietary intakes

The food supply is dynamic making dietary surveillance challenging. As one example, the recent growth of Greek-style yogurts has the potential to alter the nutritional contribution of this important dairy category. An approach to integrate market supply information into national nutrition surveillance data is proposed to better reflect such trends. This study uses product-level nutrition data from 575 new spoonable yogurts reported in 2005-12 Global New Product Database (GNPD); 92 of these products were Greek-style. Sub-category level nutrient variability is integrated with nationally representative consumption patterns from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2005-12) and used to simulate the potential impact of yogurt innovation; 2-year cycles were used to characterize the dynamic process. The GNPD simulation suggests total fat may be higher than previously estimated but that total sugars may be over-stated. While protein levels on average appear similar in both approaches there is pronounced variability in the food innovation data, which could dramatically change the simulation results. The opportunity for product innovation to influence national consumption estimates is demonstrated and will be pronounced when these products comprise a critical mass of the US food supply.