Engineering geology model of the Crater Lake outlet, Mt. Ruapehu, New Zealand, to inform rim breakout hazard

The engineering geology model portrays the relationships between the units in three dimensions, highlights key structures and takes into consideration the material source, transportation and depositional processes. Historical outlet photographs suggest past eruptive and glacial activities are both significant factors controlling the deposition and erosion of material at the outlet. The Lower Grey Member appears to be a sound material for the outlet and water fall to be founded on. The upper aa Armoured Lava Ledge currently has moderate strength and GSI, and is resistive, providing protection for the underlying weaker block and matrix unit, however, continued incision by the outlet stream will eventually expose the weaker block and matrix material of the Lava Breccia. Once exposed, the Lava Breccia could rapidly erode or fail down to the Lower Grey Member and could potentially release 1 Mm3 of hot, acidic Crater Lake water. We recommend that erosion rates for the upper Armoured Lava Ledge be established to aid in preparation for eventual rim breakout.