Observation and prediction of flotsam trajectories in the California Current System based on surface drift of RAFOS floats

Evaluation of the drift prediction by three ocean models was conducted by comparing observed drifter trajectories with model-simulated trajectories at 7-day time scales. The model-simulated trajectories were initially collocated with RAFOS positions and restarted every 15 days. The OSCURS model was the only one of three analyzed models which allowed for tuning based on the surface RAFOS trajectories. Two main parameters, Wind Angle Deflection (WAD) and Geostrophic Current Factor (GCF), were adjusted to minimize the separation between observed and modeled trajectories. At shorter time scales, from weeks to several months, the tuned OSCURS model outperformed gNCOM and HYCOM models in reproducing the observed surface drift. For seasonal and longer time scales, both gNCOM and HYCOM can reproduce the seasonal variability, flow direction, and eddy-like structures in the California Current system, which may be useful for long-term forecasts of the Northeast Pacific circulation.