Behavioral models as a common framework to predict impacts of environmental change on seabirds and fur seals

In this paper, we lay out the theoretical framework for using modeling approaches from behavioral ecology (in particular, state-dependent and game theoretical models) to predict the behavioral responses of central place foragers to changes in their food environment. We develop individual-based models of the state-dependent behavior of individual central place foragers over the course of a breeding season and show how our approach provides a framework for the prediction of trip lengths, foraging location, food delivery, and reproductive success. We formulate a common framework of models for northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus), black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla), and thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia), and provide worked examples parameterized to represent fur seals and murres. We then develop a game theoretic model at the colony-level for predicting the distribution of multiple individuals across space in the face of potential interference or facilitation, providing a worked example for kittiwakes. We demonstrate how these models can be used to predict near-term aspects of foraging behavior such as diet choice and trip destinations and durations at the individual and colony level. We show how (i) behavioral predictions can be translated into predictions of foraging success, (ii) foraging success can be scaled up to demographically relevant parameters such as survival and reproduction, and (iii) this approach can help predict impacts of environmental change on top-level predators.