A regional approach for modeling cliff retreat rate: The Makhteshim Country, Israel

• An analytic model is proposed for evaluating regional cliff retreat rate based on a DEM and GIS analysis.
• Cliff height and inclination were used to establish relative retreat rates of cliffs within the Makhteshim Country, Israel.
• Further improvement of the model is achieved by addressing scarp-talus interactions evident from the DEM.
• Known retreat rates of two cliffs enabled model calibration and derivation of retreat rate estimates for many cliffs.
• The model reveals significant variations in current retreat rates along the cliffs in the study area.

Cliff retreat rate significantly affect the evolution of landforms and cliff stability. Cliff retreat studies also provide intriguing clues regarding past geomorphic conditions and environmental changes. We hereby present a model to calculate cliff retreat rate based on spatial data of cliff structure and morphology. The model is applied to numerous cliffs in the arid Makhteshim Country, Israel, and results are calibrated using published rates of two local cliffs. The calculated retreat rates confirm previous assertions that the crater cliffs are receding very slowly, but reveal that the rates vary significantly along the cliffs (1–18 cm ky− 1). Results also provide first estimates of retreat rates of other major cliffs in the region including fast retreat rates at the Sede Zin cliff (300–600 cm ky− 1). The proposed model provides a robust analysis to account for local cliff–talus morphology and yields rate estimates representative of current conditions rather than a long-term (geologic) average rate. Results presented constitute important new insights into regional geomorphic processes and on the stability of specific cliff sections within the study area.

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