کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5780943 | 1635359 | 2017 | 73 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Process-based morphodynamic modeling of the Yangtze Estuary at a decadal timescale: Controls on estuarine evolution and future trends
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدل سازی مورفودینامیک مبتنی بر فرایند رودخانه یانگ تسه در یک دوره زمانی دهه ی 60: کنترل تکامل استوایی و روند آتی
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کلمات کلیدی
مدل سازی مبتنی بر فرآیند، تکامل مورفولوژیکی دهه فجر، تنوع ورودی رودخانه، کسرهای رسوب چندانی، رودخانه یانگ تسه،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
علوم زمین و سیارات
فرآیندهای سطح زمین
چکیده انگلیسی
Understanding the decadal morphodynamic evolution of estuaries and deltas and their controls is of vital importance regarding management for estuarine function and sustainable development. This work addresses this issue by applying a process-based model system (Delft3D) to hindcast and then forecast the morphodynamic evolution of the Yangtze Estuary at a decadal timescale. Forced by the river and tides, the model considers sand-mud mixture and the variations of river water discharge and sediment discharge. The morphodynamic model is validated against three periods, i.e., an accretion period (1958-1978), an erosion period (1986-1997) and a recent accretion period with human activities (2002 â 2010). Model results show good performance with respect to spatial erosion and deposition patterns, sediment volume changes, and hypsometry curves. The model reveals quite different behaviors for mud transport between the dry and wet seasons, which is subject to the prescription of river boundary conditions and bed composition. We define six scenarios to project evolution to the year 2030 under decreased river inputs and increased relative sea level. The simulations reveal that overwhelming amount of erosion will likely occur in the inner and mouth bar area of the estuary. Particularly, the mouth zone will shift from net deposition before 2010 to net erosion by 2030, mainly because of decreasing sediment supply. Changes in water discharge have minor effects on the projected trend. Net erosion will be considerable when the sediment supply is extremely low (100 Mt yrâ 1) due to the abundance of erodible modern sediment in the Yangtze Estuary. Erosion within the mouth bar area may be unexpected, including the deepening of the tidal inlet at East Chongming mudflat and the formation of a flood channel on the seaward side of Jiuduansha Shoal. Overall, the model results provide valuable information for sustainable delta management under changing conditions for both the Yangtze system and other similar estuaries and deltas with diminishing sediment supplies.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Geomorphology - Volume 290, 1 August 2017, Pages 347-364
Journal: Geomorphology - Volume 290, 1 August 2017, Pages 347-364
نویسندگان
Hua Long Luan, Ping Xing Ding, Zheng Bing Wang, Jian Zhong Ge,