Bayesian inference-based environmental decision support systems for oil spill response strategy selection

- Marine oil spill contingency plans are necessary but not sufficient.
- Pollution response actions can cause environmental and socioeconomic damage.
- Environmental decision support systems help revalidate response plans after a spill.
- Bayesian networks can support real time environmental decision support systems.
- A framework for Bayesian network EDSS development is proposed.

Contingency plans are essential in guiding the response to marine oil spills. However, they are written before the pollution event occurs so must contain some degree of assumption and prediction and hence may be unsuitable for a real incident when it occurs. The use of Bayesian networks in ecology, environmental management, oil spill contingency planning and post-incident analysis is reviewed and analysed to establish their suitability for use as real-time environmental decision support systems during an oil spill response. It is demonstrated that Bayesian networks are appropriate for facilitating the re-assessment and re-validation of contingency plans following pollutant release, thus helping ensure that the optimum response strategy is adopted. This can minimise the possibility of sub-optimal response strategies causing additional environmental and socioeconomic damage beyond the original pollution event.