Key parameters of the sediment surface morphodynamics in an estuary - An assessment of model solutions

Large-scale geomorphological evolution of an estuarine system was simulated by means of a hybrid estuarine sedimentation model (HESM) applied to the Guadiana Estuary, in Southwest Iberia. The model simulates the decadal-scale morphodynamics of the system under environmental forcing, using a set of analytical solutions to simplified equations of tidal wave propagation in shallow waters, constrained by empirical knowledge of estuarine sedimentary dynamics and topography. The key controlling parameters of the model are bed friction (f), current velocity power of the erosion rate function (N), and sea-level rise rate. An assessment of sensitivity of the simulated sediment surface elevation (SSE) change to these controlling parameters was performed. The model predicted the spatial differentiation of accretion and erosion, the latter especially marked in the mudflats within mean sea level and low tide level and accretion was mainly in a subtidal channel. The average SSE change mutually depended on both the friction coefficient and power of the current velocity. Analysis of the average annual SSE change suggests that the state of intertidal and subtidal compartments of the estuarine system vary differently according to the dominant processes (erosion and accretion). As the Guadiana estuarine system shows dominant erosional behaviour in the context of sea-level rise and sediment supply reduction after the closure of the Alqueva Dam, the most plausible sets of parameter values for the Guadiana Estuary are N = 1.8 and f = 0.8f0, or N = 2 and f = f0, where f0 is the empirically estimated value. For these sets of parameter values, the relative errors in SSE change did not exceed ±20% in 73% of simulation cells in the studied area. Such a limit of accuracy can be acceptable for an idealized modelling of coastal evolution in response to uncertain sea-level rise scenarios in the context of reduced sediment supply due to flow regulation. Therefore, the idealized but cost-effective HESM model will be suitable for estimating the morphological impacts of sea-level rise on estuarine systems on a decadal timescale.