کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
4686852 1635564 2008 12 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Quantitative landslide risk assessment and mapping on the basis of recent occurrences
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات فرآیندهای سطح زمین
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Quantitative landslide risk assessment and mapping on the basis of recent occurrences
چکیده انگلیسی

A quantitative procedure for mapping landslide risk is developed from considerations of hazard, vulnerability and valuation of exposed elements. The approach based on former work by the authors, is applied in the Bajo Deba area (northern Spain) where a detailed study of landslide occurrence and damage in the recent past (last 50 years) was carried out. Analyses and mapping are implemented in a Geographic Information System (GIS).The method is based on a susceptibility model developed previously from statistical relationships between past landslides and terrain parameters related to instability. Extrapolations based on past landslide behaviour were used to calculate failure frequency for the next 50 years. A detailed inventory of direct damage due to landslides during the study period was carried out and the main elements at risk in the area identified and mapped. Past direct (monetary) losses per type of element were estimated and expressed as an average ‘specific loss’ for events of a given magnitude (corresponding to a specified scenario). Vulnerability was assessed by comparing losses with the actual value of the elements affected and expressed as a fraction of that value (0–1).From hazard, vulnerability and monetary value, risk was computed for each element considered. Direct risk maps (€/pixel/year) were obtained and indirect losses from the disruption of economic activities due to landslides assessed. The final result is a risk map and table combining all losses per pixel for a 50-year period. Total monetary value at risk for the Bajo Deba area in the next 50 years is about 2.4 × 106 Euros.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Geomorphology - Volume 94, Issues 3–4, 15 February 2008, Pages 496–507
نویسندگان
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