A Bayesian network for analyzing biological acute and long-term impacts of an oil spill in the Gulf of Finland

► The BN was developed to evaluate the impacts of an oil spill in the low-saline GOF. ► The groups of organisms are ranked in terms of sensitivity to long-term oil impacts. ► Auks and ducks are the most vulnerable groups after an oil accident in the GOF. ► At some level the model may also be applicable in other low-saline areas.