Quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in traditional Minas cheeses: The cases of artisanal semi-hard and fresh soft cheeses

This study estimated the risk of listeriosis from Brazilian cheese consumption using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). Risks associated to consumption of two cheese types were assessed: artisanal ripened semi-hard cheese (produced with raw milk) and refrigerated fresh soft cheese (produced with pasteurized milk). The semi-hard cheese model predicted Listeria monocytogenes growth or decline during ripening, while the soft cheese model predicted pathogen growth during refrigerated storage. Semi-hard cheese modeling scenarios considered L. monocytogenes starting concentration from −2.4 to 6 log CFU/mL in raw milk and three ripening times (4, 22 and 60 days). Soft cheese modeling scenarios considered L. monocytogenes starting concentration from −2.4 to 4 log CFU/mL in milk. The inclusion of anti-listerial lactic acid bacteria (LAB) in cheeses was also examined. Risk of listeriosis due to consumption of soft cheese was 6000 and 190 times greater than that of semi-hard cheese, for general and vulnerable populations, respectively. Aging semi-hard cheese reduced risk, and risk was influenced by L. monocytogenes starting concentration. Aging cheese with inhibitory LAB for 22 days reduced risk over 4 million-fold when L. monocytogenes was assumed to be 6 log CFU/mL in raw milk. The inclusion of inhibitory LAB also reduced risk of listeriosis due to soft cheese consumption, but not as much as for semi-hard cheese. QMRA results predicted that consumption of contaminated cheeses can carry a high risk of listeriosis, especially for vulnerable populations. Scenario analyses indicated that aging of semi-hard cheese and inclusion of antimicrobial LAB mix in semi-hard and soft cheeses are effective risk mitigation measures.